University of Exeter study is raising alarms about ecosystems that may already be on verge of collapse.

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — If you could view our planet from space, it might look the same, but new research suggests the Earth is actually spinning at a dangerous tipping point.

Temperatures are now predicted to blow past the 1.5 degree Celsius rise compared to pre-industrial levels within the next five years and major ecosystems and climate drivers are on the verge of irreversible collapse.

According to a newly released study from the University of Exeter, the first casualty could be the planet’s coral reefs.

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“You know, what I’ve seen is what almost everybody that I know that studies reefs over the last, you know, over a period of decades has seen that almost every reef I’ve ever been to has gotten more and more and more damaged over time,” says Stephen Palumbi, Ph.D., a professor of marine sciences at Stanford’s Hopkins Marine Station at Monterey Bay.

While not part of this report, Prof. Palumbi dives and studies reefs worldwide. An estimated 80% are now being affected by the worst mass bleaching event on record. It’s a temperature-fueled die-off of the algae that live inside the coral, providing it with food. While some coral species can recover from the bleaching, experts say others cannot.

“So, you’ve got a heat-stressed, starving animal there that doesn’t necessarily live. 90% of them will die, depending on the strength of the heating event. So, the bleaching leads to a lot of coral death,” Palumbi says.

But if coral is threatened now, other ecosystems aren’t far behind. Researchers have identified more than two dozen tipping points for ecosystems, ranging from the melting of the polar ice sheets, which in turn triggers sea level rise, to the interruption of currents circulating the Atlantic, which could unleash major changes in storm cycles. And ultimately a die-off of rainforests like the Amazon, which also has a direct effect on greenhouse gas levels and weather patterns.

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Peter Roopnarine, Ph.D., studies the evolution of ecosystems with the California Academy of Sciences in San Francisco.

“And the tipping points for these systems are all now within a range that, unfortunately, we think is, is reachable. It’s within reach of global warming. And so they may not happen all at the same time because we expect the ocean currents, for example, to be a bit more resistant than, say, the coral reefs, which are really the ones that are most in danger right now, but they’re all within reach,” says Roopnarine.

Still, both researchers found some hope on the horizon. Several groups, including Academy scientists, have been working on increasingly sophisticated methods of rescuing and breeding the most heat-tolerant coral to give them a chance to help rejuvenate the damaged reefs.

“Then you’ve got the ability to then take those corals and then breed them together and then make the next generation of more heat-resistant ones, and then go from there,” says Palumbi, who has collected diverse samples from distressed reefs.

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Roopnarine also points to climate solutions gaining momentum.

“I think those are good signs. And so now we’re hoping to, you know, temper and balance these really dangerous tipping points with maybe some positive ones,” Roopnarine says.

But as we continue to search for solutions, the clock keeps ticking. And researchers believe the time left to make changes is quickly running short.

The COP30 conference is being held in Brazil this year. It’s set to kick off next week.